According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China’s economy is the only country with a positive GDP in 2020. Economic growth in 2020 is rare as economies are under pressure due to job losses, market contraction, and secondary effects from COVID-19. If you work in commerce, we assume that disposable income is available in all markets we operate in. 

The coming Wednesday is one of my favorite macroeconomic barometers, the 11.11 Global Shopping Festival. It started as Singles Day, and every year since 2008, it showcases the difference between Chinese e-commerce and the world.

The 11 things to watch on the 12th edition of the 11.11 Global Shopping Festival

1. A look into the future of commerce (retail and e-commerce) and how customers are at the center. Every part of the customer journey is optimized for speed, efficiency, and repeatability. Innovation speed is unbelievable, but as mentioned, consumers are looking to upgrade their lives. China should be on the market entry list for brands of all sizes due to the economic growth and recovery being faster than any other country.
2. The luxury sector has an opportunity to leverage mobile, live-streaming, branded content to grow sustainable businesses. China is a long term market and thus generates insights and learnings that can be shifted to other markets. 
3. China is the most important cross-border e-commerce market, and brands are in survival mode due to closed or limited cross-border delivery. 2020 is also the first year in which Koala and Tmall Global are available to brands to reach different customers.
4. The normalization of live-streaming. Using live-streaming is a fundamental part of engaging with Chinese consumers. In 2020 prolonged livestreaming through avatars or virtual characters will occur. Live-streaming is also no longer a transactional medium but rather evolving into entertainment through the combination with branded content. 
5. When Alibaba kicked off 11.11 Global Shopping Festival in early November, it made it clear that this year’s goal is helping SMEs. Unlike Amazon, who made SMEs the focus of its results, Alibaba is ensuring that smaller businesses get the most exposure in from of Chinese consumers.
6. There are 2020 experiments, such as having two sales periods in which consumers can purchase products delivered, and sellers can promote items. 
7. The lower-tier cities and their consumers will have more targeted offers than in years previously. Older consumers (Silvers) and Generation Z remain critical consumers due to the rise in online shopping due to COVID-19.
8. The use of local services, Ele.me, Sun Art Retail, and Ant all provide additional opportunities for consumers to find what they want and have it delivered to them how they want. 
9. It’s important to note that the 11.11 Global Shopping Festival has no material impact on the Alibaba stock price. That said, I project that GMV for this year will be somewhere close to $40b. 
10. If you look at other shopping festivals globally, commoditized products are sold to consumers. What makes 11.11 Global Shopping Festival unique is that Tmall’s Innovation Centre (TMIC) works with brands to create exclusive products. This creates consumer demand to check what is available from brands as these products are only available once per year.
11. How does the 11.11 Global Shopping Festival look outside China? How does Lazada, Daraz offer consumers events that are unique to their markets?