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Artificial Intelligence and its Financial Impact

Over the last six months, I have spoken with many startups that claim to have artificial intelligence (AI) as part of their solution. The reality is that many of these companies added AI to their pitch decks and materials without being able to showcase its impact. We are in a cycle in which lies and hopes are sold as the future. An incumbent, Amazon, has showcased the first example of an AI solution with financial impact.

We are in the early days of AI’s impact. Google has tried and removed its AI summaries as the outcomes were undesirable due to the volume and accuracy of searches consumers do. What is clear to me is that consumer AI solutions are years away from being relevant and financial drivers. That said, I believe business AI solutions are closer due to the specificity of solutions.

AI and finances as describe my meme imagery

Is It Complicated Between Amazon and Google?

Over the last year, I have been tracking a story that has implications for the entire e-commerce sector (brands, vendors, agencies, and customers). Google’s relationship with one of its largest advertisers, Amazon, is strained, to say the least. What is Google’s north star, and how does it impact e-commerce platforms? Amazon spends millions to ensure customers can find whatever they need, yet it is clearly concerned over Google’s future ambitions. What is the end game for Google and Amazon?

Google and Organic Results

Google has one business—selling advertising alongside its search results. For some reason, Google feels that it needs to add artificial intelligence to its search results to help customers. I find that adding AI to its search engine is borderline crazy, as the beta has been diminishing the trust it’s built for years. Do OpenAI and Microsoft really pose such a threat that Google has to add untested technology to a multi-billion dollar business and risk losing customers? Or is this an admission that, internally, the company believes its search business has reached its plateau?

Learnings from the Last Two and a Half Years

It has been two and a half years since my last newsletter. The e-commerce world increasingly feels equal to dog years – a lot has changed. What are the major learnings I have had.

Learnings A to Z

Amazon is still a misunderstood channel for brands. Yes – you read that right. There are still brands that either are unaware of the channel or are just not interested in selling on the marketplace. A decade ago, I was one of those idiot consultants who thought that brands should not be on the channel. Really? Over the last two and half years – the numerous times I saw Amazon being the largest and fastest-growing channel for brands. Consumer packaged goods believe that the deck is so stacked against them that Amazon is not worth the effort. Really? What are we doing here?

The FBA Roll-up Delusion

I have been tracking a sector since middle April that has been gaining momentum. The acquisition of Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) businesses by venture-backed companies or PE investors seems to be the 2020 fad.

In 2017-2019, the B2C e-commerce sector saw direct-to-consumer e-commerce investment at scale. It has cooled down to a degree, as questions over sustainability, vertical integration, and real impact became normal. In 2020, venture and private equity believe that rolling-up many FBA businesses into a holding company are the solution. I am not so sure about that.

Brands are Trees

Since the beginning of 2020, a new phenomenon is happening. Large brands (think PepsiCo, Kraft Heinz, Nestle) are opening direct to consumer websites. The same brands remain committed to their wholesaling and retail partners. Why is DTC for these brands a big deal?

If the small upstart disrupts the large incumbent its worth a lot of PR yet an incumbent can be nimble its panic. What is going on here?